2024 Paris Olympics: A Threat Assessment

The 2024 Paris Olympics will begin on 26 July and continue until 11 August. France has already raised its security threat level to the maximum in preparation for the event. Overall, Paris is expecting to receive more than 15 million tourists, with 300,000 expected at the opening ceremony. The French government will deploy around 20,000 soldiers and over 40,000 police officers to provide security. It will also receive around 2,000 military personnel from other countries in support. (source). Multiple past terrorist attacks in France have also indicated that terrorism is one of the main security threats they face. Foiled plots and attacks from previous Olympic Games have served as a stark warning that ideologically and politically motivated attacks are highly likely. Current global tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, have only further increased these concerns.

 Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that Islamist terrorism and violent extremists present the greatest threat towards the Paris Olympics.

 Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that the increase in lone actors and decentralized terrorist networks will significantly worsen Paris’ security situation, and hinder French authorities’ operations.

 Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that France will face an extremely severe cybersecurity threat to its critical infrastructure and supply chain networks, predominantly from Russian-based cyber actors.

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