Executive Summary

We assess that the official disarmament of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)*, which officially began in July, has the potential to reduce violent clashes within Turkey, but it is unlikely to resolve the deeply rooted grievances between the Turkish government and the Kurdish population at large. The changes come amid ongoing Turkish crackdowns on Kurdish political actors, endangering a lasting peace process. Additionally, we assess that Turkey will continue its military involvement against forces in Kurdish-dominated parts of Iraq and Syria, despite calls to withdraw its troops.

*Background: The PKK was founded in 1978. It has waged an armed insurgency against Turkey since 1984, seeking greater autonomy and rights for the Kurdish minority. The conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and widespread displacement. Abdullah Öcalan, the PKK leader imprisoned since 1999, has played a pivotal role in shaping the movement’s strategies. His calls in February for the PKK’s dissolution mark a historic shift away from armed struggle.

Images Sourced From: Dmitry Vinogradov I, Dmitri Vinogradov II, Dmitry Vinogradov III, Sputnik