Executive Summary
We assess that railgun technology is undergoing an accelerating rate of development, with major programs in Japan, China, Europe, and other regions. While the US withdrew from its railgun program in 2021, major milestones occurred particularly in Asia and Europe.
Railguns promise to significantly boost not only artillery capabilities, but also missile defence capabilities as their high projectile speed enables them to intercept high-speed targets that otherwise remain difficult to intercept, such as hypersonic missiles. However, widespread deployment is unlikely before 2030 as major technological obstacles remain yet to be solved.
Image Sourced From: U.S. Navy
Key Judgements
KJ-1. Technological acumen and broad cooperation are key factors driving the increasing development of rail gun technology, particularly in Asia and Europe, and will likely keep the involved nations ahead of traditional arms producers, such as the United States.
- Since 2024, Japan has been pursuing a trilateral scientific cooperation with France and Germany to advance railgun technologies. [source]
- In April 2025, Japan installed a turreted prototype railgun for sea trials on its warship JS Asuka. [source, source]
- The European Defence Agency (EDA) unites expertise from four European countries in its PILUM and Technology for Electromagnetic Artillery (THEMA) projects, aiming for testing of an electromagnetic railgun by 2028. [source, source]
- In June 2025, the Italian Ministry of Defense approved the second phase of the Herakles program, aimed to develop a hypersonic electromagnetic railgun system. The ministry and a private contractor equally split the funding. [source]
- China leveraged artificial intelligence (AI) to overcome technical challenges and advance their domestic rail gun program. [source]
KJ-2. Despite significant development efforts, rail guns are unlikely to see widespread adoption within this decade due to technical barriers.
- Railguns present unique challenges related to high energy consumption and the fact that sustained firing of high-speed projectiles can degrade barrels, affect accuracy, and potentially cause system failure. [source]
- Japan’s recent shipboard test confirmed a barrel life of up to 120 fired rounds without significant damage. However, scalability to larger calibers and more rounds is yet to be proven. [source]
- The US Navy paused its development of railguns in 2021 due to persistent concerns regarding the rapid erosion of launchers due to extreme heat. [source]
KJ-3. Rail guns are likely to be used in missile and air defence, if technical challenges can be overcome.
- The speed of rail gun projectiles—reaching 2000 m/s and more—allows them to intercept hypersonic missiles and contribute to a layered air defense system. [source]
- Japan’s rail gun program specifically aims at countering potential hypersonic threats from China, Russia, and North Korea, according to Nikkei Asia. [source]
- The General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems promises to attack multiple targets in quick succession due to their high rate of fire, while keeping the cost of engagement low, according to the manufacturer. That said, they have not yet deployed the system in combat. [source]
Statement on Analysis
The volume of reliable international news reports and business insights on this issue give us a high confidence in our key judgments. That said, our analysis relies on publicly available information and we would be blind to any ongoing developments in classified railgun programs that may be underway.
Our assessment rests on the assumption that the present challenges inherent in this technology are unlikely to be fully resolved within the next few years and that countries making advances in railgun design will seek to overcome technological barriers and continue to move the technology towards operational maturity rather than abandon programs, as did the U.S. Navy. Relatedly, a variable that could affect our assessment would be any sudden rehabilitation of US efforts in railgun development.