Executive Summary

In 2025, Russia utilised its maritime assets, such as its spy vessels and shadow fleet vessels, to conduct extensive intelligence collection and sabotage operations against NATO members, including the UK, Norway, Finland and the United States. Simultaneously, Russia partnered with China to conduct intrusive military manoeuvres in or near the United States and its allies’ waters, which have grown to include airspace operations. 

Meanwhile, throughout the year, Moscow maintained covert action operations against NATO countries supporting Kiev, as well as against Ukraine itself. Indeed, the frequency of Moscow’s hybrid warfare activity in Europe has increased dramatically since 2023, to now include recruiting minors to conduct sabotage and intelligence gathering operations in the UK and Ukraine.

We have not identified any signs that Moscow will reduce this heightened operational tempo against Western allies as long as the Ukraine conflict continues, and we cannot rule out the possibility that they will further increase in 2026.