Tensions between Russia and Norway increased recently. This is especially true regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine which NATO member Norway is vehemently opposed to. Increasing Russian espionage activities, including the death of suspected Russian ‘spy-whale’ Hvaldimir, have also resulted in increased tensions. 

Additionally, Incursions near their respective airspaces by both Russian and also American long-range bombers increased tensions. This comes as both sides scrambled fighter jets in order to ward off the threat posed by these long-range aircraft. Also, the Russia-Norway border is the site of closures and a marked decrease in crossings. This has resulted in an uneasy atmosphere, which had been previously characterised by the free crossing of both populations.

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that Russia will escalate espionage activities to gather information leading to increased tensions.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that Russia-Norway tensions will escalate over increased activities near Norwegian airspace by both sides and allies.

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that the Russia-Norway border will be the site of increased tensions leading to crossing disruptions and closures.