In comparison to other global powers such as the United States and China, Russian influence in Latin America remains limited. Nonetheless, Russia is seeking to expand its regional influence. This is part of its larger geopolitical strategy to counter the United States’ dominance and expand its global reach. In recent years, Russia increased its political and economic activity in the region. Moscow is also trying to boost the military aspect of its foreign policy.

Key judgement 1. It is highly likely that Russia will continue to expand its political influence in Latin America, including through propaganda and disinformation campaigns.

Key judgement 2. It is likely that Russia will continue to increase its commercial presence in Latin America, especially through loans and investments in the energy sector.

Key judgement 3. Russia is likely to increase its military influence in Latin America, through arms sales and sending personnel in limited numbers.