On 22 February, Armenia froze their participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CTSO) [source]. Yerevan claims Moscow betrayed the alliance when Russian peacekeeping troops failed to prevent Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh. On 9 March, Armenia’s Foreign Minister expressed Yerevan is seeking closer ties with the west and is considering EU membership. The next 12 months are crucial for Armenian security. Yerevan must find new security partners to deter Azerbaijan without alienating and inviting the ire of their former partner, Russia.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely Armenia will remain a member of CTSO and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) over the next 12 months despite increasing tension with Russia.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely Armenia will ensure their security over the next 12 months through western arms deals rather than security guarantees.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly unlikely Russia will coup Pashinyan unless Armenia unilaterally withdraws from the CTSO and Eurasian Union.