Executive Summary
Hainan, known as China’s Hawaii, is both a popular tourist destination and a vital military stronghold. The highly-classified Yulin Naval Base, located on Hainan’s southern coast, has undergone significant expansion in recent years, cementing its position as a key component of China’s naval strategy. This development demonstrates Beijing’s growing ability to challenge U.S. naval supremacy, maintain nuclear deterrence, and prepare for potential Indo-Pacific conflicts, particularly with Taiwan.
Images Sourced From: Eugene Lee, Japanese Ministry of Defense
1 Strategic Importance of Yulin Naval Base
Yulin Naval Base is strategically positioned to provide the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) with direct access to the South China Sea, a highly contested region rich in resources and critical to global trade. The base offers several key advantages for Chinese military operations:
- Geographical Projection: Hainan’s proximity to deep waters allows China’s nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) to operate with a lower risk of detection. The deep waters south of Hainan enable strategic mobility for submarines, essential to China’s second-strike nuclear capability.
- Operational Sustainment: The base’s expansion includes additional piers, wharfs, and logistical facilities to support a growing fleet. This infrastructure enhances China’s ability to deploy and sustain long-range naval missions.
- Regional Power Projection: The base’s location enables China to monitor and control key maritime routes in the South China Sea, enforcing its territorial claims and deterring foreign naval operations. [source]
2 Expansion and Capabilities
2.1 Submarine Operations and Nuclear Deterrent
Yulin Naval Base now plays a larger role in housing and supporting China’s nuclear submarine fleet, enhancing its strategic capabilities. Recent satellite imagery confirms significant improvements to submarine facilities, including:
- Expanded Docking: Additional piers have been constructed, enabling up to 12 submarines to dock simultaneously. As a result, this development suggests an emphasis on rapid deployment and logistical sustainment.
- Underground Infrastructure: East Yulin features a water-filled tunnel system that leads into a mountainside and is about 60 feet high. Analysts believe this feature strengthens China’s deterrent by offering a secure location for nuclear submarines to load and maintain weapons.
- Permanent Nuclear Deterrence: Defence analysts believe at least one nuclear-armed submarine is constantly patrolling the South China Sea. This aligns with China’s strategy to maintain a second-strike capability, ensuring its nuclear forces survive in conflict. [source]
2.2 Surface Fleet Expansion and Dry Dock Capabilities
Yulin Naval Base is now a key hub for China’s surface fleet, including aircraft carriers, cruisers, and destroyers. The base’s recent upgrades include:
- Large Dry Dock Facility: Measuring approximately 1,500 feet long, this facility can accommodate all classes of Chinese warships, including the country’s newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian. This indicates that China is prioritizing high operational readiness for its growing navy.
- Integrated Weapon Storage and Transportation Systems: A hidden rail system visible in satellite imagery likely moves warheads and other munitions across the site into the underground submarine pen. This logistics system reduces vulnerability to foreign monitoring.
- New Wharf Construction: Additional wharfs and piers are being developed to accommodate a larger number of vessels, further strengthening China’s capacity to rapidly mobilise forces in the region. [source]
3 Technological Advancements and Force Modernisation at Yulin
New naval technologies, especially unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), are also being tested in Yulin. These platforms are intended to improve China’s anti-submarine warfare, mine-laying, and intelligence-gathering capabilities.
The HSU-001 underwater drone, introduced in 2019, showcases China’s push for greater underwater autonomy and advanced naval capabilities. Alongside other unidentified UUVs, these drones suggest China’s effort to enhance its clandestine naval operational capabilities. Analysts have observed retractable covers hiding UUVs at the base. [source]
4 Regional and Strategic Implications
The expansion of Yulin Naval Base aligns with China’s overarching goal of becoming a dominant maritime power. This development has several significant implications:
- Challenging U.S. Naval Supremacy: China’s navy now surpasses the U.S. with over 370 ships and is expected to reach 435 by 2030. By more effectively maintaining and deploying its fleet, the Yulin upgrades guarantee China can continue this expansion. The U.S. currently aims to operate 300 ships by 2030.
- Militarisation of the South China Sea: The base’s growth strengthens Beijing’s hold on the region, raising the possibility of conflicts with the US Navy and other regional players.
- Taiwan Contingency Planning: Given the growing tension over Taiwan, Yulin could serve as a critical launch point for naval operations in a potential conflict scenario. Moreover, the base’s facilities will enable rapid deployment and logistical support for a large-scale military campaign. [source]
5 Forecast: Yulin’s Role in China’s Maritime Strategy
Over the next decade, Yulin Naval Base will likely play a central role in China’s regional and global naval ambitions. Key projections include:
- Increased SSBN Deployments: As China expands its nuclear submarine fleet, Yulin will be a key hub for nuclear deterrent operations.
- Enhanced Regional Control: China will continue militarising the South China Sea, using Yulin as a primary base for enforcing its maritime claims and deterring foreign intervention. Yulin is also one of several PRC docks in and around the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal, frequently hosting PLAN vessels.
- Greater Western-China Naval Tensions: As China’s naval capabilities grow, the U.S. and its allies will likely increase their presence in the Indo-Pacific, leading to heightened tensions and potential confrontations in contested waters.
6 Conclusion
In sum, Yulin Naval Base marks a significant milestone in China’s transformation into a global naval power. The base’s expansion and technological advancements have significantly improved Beijing’s ability to project power, secure its nuclear deterrent, and prepare for potential conflicts. As China modernises its military, Yulin will continue to be a strategic focus, shaping the future dynamics of Indo-Pacific naval competition. The growing capabilities at this base not only challenge US dominance in the region but also pave the way for a more complex security environment in the coming years.
