Executive Summary

The South African Security Community is facing internal turmoil due to corruption, dismissals, and bad actors complicit in criminal activity. We do not foresee any improvement in the situation in the coming months. 

Possibly most significant among many events is President Ramaphosa’s October 2025 suspension of Inspector-General of Intelligence (IG) Imitaz Fazel, and his failure to backfill the role. We assess that the gap in this critical position almost certainly diminishes oversight of ongoing anti-corruption investigations, especially crackdowns targeting South Africa’s Police Service (SAPS). 

Meanwhile, a series of arrests within the SAPS by the Investigating Directorate Against Corruption (IDAC) has triggered a conflict that is spilling over from politics to political violence and intimidation that is targeting the IDAC leadership. The conflict shows little-to-no signs of approaching resolution, and we expect the violence to continue over the near term.

It is unclear if President Ramaphosa’s early January snap appointment of then Special Investigating Unit (SIU) head Advocate Jan Lekgoa (Andy) Mothibi as the new National Director of Public Prosecutions (NDPP) will bring any calm to the situation. The appointment comes amid controversy and follows disruptive, abrupt personnel changes in key leadership positions at the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA).