Executive Summary

We assess that it is unlikely that Washington has reestablished control over the Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan, despite recent reporting to the contrary that has stirred interest among Afghanistan watchers. That said, an increased interest in Central Asia does fit into the realignment of US foreign policy under the current administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticised the administration of former president Joe Biden for leaving the base to the Taliban due to its strategic proximity to China.

The unconfirmed reports about the landing of US aircraft in Afghanistan occur amid an intensified build up of force at the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, widely assessed to be aimed at pressuring Iran to cease its nuclear program as talks are ongoing. There is no confirmed data at this point to suggest a formal US presence in Afghanistan. Since the Taliban took control of the country in 2021, they have focused on establishing reliable ties with China and Russia.

Images Sourced From: Clive Hindmarch, Callum Darragh, Staff Sgt. Kylee Gardner,  Sgt. Landon Carter