On 17 January 2024, Iranian strikes targeting Jaish al-adl in Pakistani Balochistan are alleged to have killed civilians, putting a strain on Iran-Pakistan relations. Pakistan responded with its own set of strikes targeting Baloch militants two days later on 19 January. Militant groups such as Jaish al-Adl, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) active in the border regions of Balochistan and Sistan-Baluchestan have attacked Iranian and Pakistani civilians as well as military personnel. The risk of escalation between Iran and Pakistan has seen calls for cooperation between the two nations by top diplomats. Security cooperation between the two countries occurring in the wake of recent regional tensions may result in a more stable political environment.
Key Judgement 1. Tensions between Iran and Pakistan regarding military operations are likely to subside in the next 6 months.
Key Judgement 2. Cooperation between Iran and Pakistan in regards to targeting of militant groups is highly likely to increase.
Key Judgement 3. Iranian and Pakistani officials will highly likely increase accusations of outside support for militant groups in the next 6 months.
