Recent developments illuminate the complexity of United Arab Emarites (UAE) interests in Somalia. Presented are both challenges and opportunities for regional stakeholders. Additionally, with Ethiopia endorsing DP World and Egypt emphasising the sanctity of Somali sovereignty, the stage is set for a complex geopolitical dance. The Somali government’s acknowledgment of agreements without legal standing, coupled with insights into UAE’s strategic manoeuvres via Sudan and Ethiopia, underscores the multifaceted nature of the relationship, including UAE’s stakes in Somalia.

Moreover, Abu Dhabi’s proactive engagement with Somali state governments, exemplified by Puntland’s bold move and Somaliland’s strategic alignment, opens avenues for fruitful partnerships. However, amidst these promising prospects, the spectre of escalation looms large. In addition, attacks targeting Emirati military personnel and Al-Shabaab’s menacing rhetoric pose tangible risks to UAE’s interests in Somalia. As the region navigates this intricate terrain, understanding the nuances of Emirati-Somali relations becomes paramount for seizing commercial opportunities and safeguarding investments.

Key Judgement 1. It’s likely that the Emirati position on Somalia’s sovereignty will continue to embody a duality, balancing collaborative efforts such as with DP World, against assertions from entities like the Egyptian Foreign Ministry.

Key Judgement 2. It’s likely that Abu Dhabi is keen to build a strong network of relations with the Somali state governments, and not only with the Somali government.

Key Judgement 3. It’s likely that further escalation such as the attack on a military base in the Somali capital, threats from Al-Shabaab, and the lifting of the arms embargo will impact UAE interests.