The UN recently warned of “epic suffering” in Sudan and called for $4 billion in aid (source). This situation stems from when on 15 April 2023, former Sudanese paramilitary forces, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) rebelled against the Government. This has led to a vicious war and a power struggle between the RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (or Hemedti), and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. In recent months, the RSF has made consistent progress across the country. The conflict has left tens of thousands dead and millions displaced. The RSF also faces accusations of genocide in Darfur. This conflict in an already unstable area, as well as foreign interference by several countries, makes it of great geopolitical and security concern.

Key Judgement 1. The RSF will likely gain territory across the country in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is unlikely that the RSF and the Sudanese government will reach a ceasefire or peace agreement in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 3. Foreign actors will likely interfere in the conflict, in support of the RSF over the next six months.