The triple-frontier in South America, also known as the tri border region, is the meeting point of the Argentine, Paraguayan and Brazilian borders. It has seen increasing levels of terrorist activity. This terrorist activity has come from communist guerillas in Paraguay and Hezbollah militants who have been active in smuggling operations in the region for decades. The US government has supported the concerted efforts of the Brazilian, Paraguayan and Argentine governments to combat these threats. Amidst the ongoing conflict in Israel and Gaza the region has seen an increase in activity from Islamic terrorist organisations which have attempted to carry out attacks against the Brazilian Jewish community from their bases in the region.
Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that terrorist entities will increase activity in the triple-frontier region in the next 6 months.
Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that the Brazilian, Argentine and Paraguayan governments will increase counter-insurgency activities aimed at Islamic terrorist threats in the next 6 months.
Key Judgement 3. It is likely that the US will expose and sanction Hezbollah and affiliates who operate in the triple-frontier area in the next 6 months.
