Executive Summary

The UAE has, in the first quarter of 2025, significantly increased its counterterrorism operations in Somalia, particularly through airstrikes targeting Al-Shabab and Islamic State (IS) in Somalia, reflecting a broader strategy to enhance its regional influence and security presence.

On 02 January, airstrikes hit IS positions in Cal Miskaat Mountains as local forces launched operations against the militants. On 04 February, another round of strikes hit the Togga Jacayl area within the same mountain range. While many initially attributed these attacks to the U.S., Washington never took credit, leading many to conclude UAE involvement.

These counterterror operations are not standalone and align with a legacy of UAE investment and broader shifts toward a more assertive foreign policy in the Horn of Africa, amid rising jihadist activity and geopolitical competition. Abu Dhabi has been active in Somalia for more than a decade, and as it moves to fill gaps left by uncertain U.S. support, its military activity is expected to expand.