Executive Summary

Frontlines in Ukraine increasingly are characterised by the “Grey Zone,” a contested no man’s land where Ukrainian trenches and Russian shelters overlap, degrading both sides’ ability to conduct large-scale insertions or emergency medical evacuations. Drone threats along supply routes have extended deployments for Ukrainian and Russian units to as long as six months. Frontline combat has also become incrementally more lethal in 2025, with no indicators suggesting a reduction in intensity into 2026. 

Casualties for both Russia and Ukraine in 2025 increased by approximately 30% compared to 2024, with Russian forces sustaining average daily personnel losses of roughly 300 by the end of the year. Despite sustained material degradation and high infantry losses, the Kremlin is likely to continue achieving gradual territorial gains in the coming months. Russian forces seized approximately 445 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory in December, with advances concentrated around Slovyansk and Pokrovsk.