Venezuela is currently facing increasing pressure from the United States, as the White House amasses military resources and conducts kinetic strikes in the Caribbean. Donald Trump has framed the ongoing operation as a counternarcotics deployment, but the large-scale buildup of combat assets in Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago suggests the scope of the operation has a realistic possibility of expanding from targeting smuggling vessels in the Caribbean to striking ground objectives in Venezuela.

Compounding these indicators is also the confirmed presence of United States special forces support assets (Ocean Trader / Night Stalkers) in the theatre of operations. Washington also authorised Langley to conduct covert action in Venezuela through a presidential finding reported on October through credible media outlets. Grey Dynamics’ real-time monitoring and analysis of the situation aims to deliver continuous updates and verified intelligence on the ongoing flashpoint.

Area of Interest: Republic of Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Southern Caribbean.

Start Date: 04 November 2025

Scope of Analysis: Publicly Available Information (PAI) and Commercially Available Information (CAI) showing disposition and movement of the Venezuelan Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) and the United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) in the actual theatre, as well as changing circumstances that could alter their capabilities or suggest intent. Human Intelligence (HUMINT) emanating from established sources and cooperative contacts inside the country will be exploited to reinforce or challenge the assumptions of our daily analyses, as well to focus our collection efforts on certain locations of interest.

08 January 2026

The Venezuelan Armed Forces sustained significant personnel losses and had encrypted communications capabilities neutralised as a result of the main kinetic strikes conducted during Operation Permanent Resolve

• [16:00 CET] Cagigal Observatory, a central node of communications in the capital, was targeted and destroyed by the United States alongside the Militia Headquarters. [source, source]
• [15:00 CET] Publicly Available Information also confirms that the Tetra Radio Systems’ main antennas were neutralised in the Greater Caracas Area during Operation Permanent Resolve. [source, source]
• [14:00 CET] Information from different reporting streams allowed us to identify at least 43 Venezuelan soldiers and 32 Cuban advisors killed in action around Caracas. [source, source]

03 January 2026

Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores were likely captured in a joint Delta Force–Night Stalkers raid. Washington’s offensive action is also highly likely to have destroyed critical command infrastructure in Caracas.

• [11:00 CET] Donald Trump announced through a social media statement that United States forces had successfully captured and extracted Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores.[source]
• [09:00 CET] Multiple Chinooks helicopters, assessed to be operated by the Night Stalkers, were recorded by Venezuelan civilians departing the vicinity of Fuerte Tiuna [source]
• [08:00 CET]  United States media outlets reported that Delta Force elements participated in the operation to detain Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores in Caracas, Venezuela. [source]

02 January 2026

Emerging indicators that include local eyewitness accounts and recovered charred debris reinforce previous Grey Dynamics assessments of a United States covert action kinetic strike in Venezuela

• [15:00 CET] Images obtained by Telemundo from the Alta Guajira show charred fragments whose physical markings largely correspond with those of a Hellfire missile engine. [source]
• [13:00 CET] Wayuu indigenous personnel reported to American media outlets witnessing an unexplained detonation on 18 December that destroyed a storage structure in Zulia. [source]

29 December 2025

There is a realistic probability that the White House conducted a covert action operation against the Soles Cartel, although this assessment is held with minimal confidence given the paucity and uneven quality of ground reporting inside Venezuela.

• [23:00 CET] According to several proprietary sources from American media outlets, Langley conducted a drone strike on a Venezuelan land target during the first weeks of December. [source, source]
• [18:00 CET] Donald Trump stated on a media interview that the United States had conducted an attack against an undisclosed location as part of the administration’s campaign against Nicolás Maduro. [source]
• [13:00 CET] Four White House officials reported to the New York Times that Donald Trump’s statement was a reference to the destruction of a facility located inside the Republic of Venezuela. [source]

26 December 2025

The United States is reinforcing its military deployment against Nicolás Maduro. These capability enhancements in the maritime and aerial domain are likely be employed to support or enable additional seizures of crude tankers in the Caribbean.

• [14:00 CET] Local Publicly Available Information collectors reported and confirmed a significant buildup of military resources at Roosevelt Roads Naval Base over the last seven days. [source]
• [13:00 CET] Nine KC-135R Stratotankers were deployed yesterday from the United States to support ongoing undisclosed military operations in the Southern Caribbean. [source]
• [12:00 CET] Satellite imagery collected on Wednesday captured a United States amphibious assault group and special forces vessel heading toward the Southern Caribbean. [source]

24 December 2025

Beijing and Moscow are highly likely to be supplying Miraflores with military material and training advisors in a limited capacity, but we do not rule out the possibility that Tehran is also contributing to these efforts in support of Caracas

• [19:00 CET] Casa Militar, the brigade in charge of presidential security, published a video this week showcasing a delivery of Chinese-made rifles inside Miraflores Palace. [source]
• [19:00 CET] Venezuelan military analysts published additional media showcasing reserve militias with Belarusian-supplied optics during a training hosted by Casa Militar.[source]
• [19:00 CET] Further videos collected by the same analyst on December displayed the same squadron of Venezuelan militias with Norinco sniper rifles in an undisclosed location [source]

21 December 2025

Maritime traffic carrying Venezuelan crude is facing increased exposure to United States boarding and seizure operations in the Caribbean, with this operational environment expected to persist through December.

• [12:00 CET] Homeland Security confirmed that a Panamanian/Chinese civil tanker was boarded and seized yesterday during a Coast Guard operation in the Southern Caribbean. [source]
• [12:00 CET] Yesterday’s board and seizure operation by the Coast Guard represents the United States’ second action this month against a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude to Asia [source]
• [11:00 CET] Miraflores Palace characterised the recent White House operation against the crude tanker as an act of piracy and pledged to raise the matter at the United Nations. [source]

19 December 2025

Washington’s probing efforts are progressively encroaching on Venezuelan airspace, and we do not rule out that observable airframes could be obfuscating deeper electronic warfare or intelligence collection efforts against Caracas. 

• [13:00 CET] Multiple United States Navy fighters and reconnaissance airframes conducted probing operations yesterday deep inside the Maiquetía Flight Information Region [source]
• [19:00 CET] Another F/A-18 Hornet was reported by online Publicly Available Information collectors to be approximately 56 kilometres from Boyaca Avenue in Caracas. [source]

17 December, 2025

Nicolás Maduro is experiencing mounting economic pressure due to targeted operations against sanctioned tankers; however, the available information is insufficient to reliably assess the potential impact on internal dynamics at the Miraflores Palace

• [13:00 CET] Transparencia Venezuela, a local anti-corruption organisation, reported that 24 of the 92 petroleum tankers in-country are shadow fleet vessels operating under concealed identities. [source]
• [11:00 CET] Donald Trump announced yesterday his intention to implement a maritime embargo against petroleum tankers believed to be providing economic benefits to Nicolás Maduro. [source]
• [08:00 CET] According to Reuters, five supertankers that were en route to Venezuela reversed course on Monday after the United States boarded and seized a sanctioned tanker in the Caribbean. [source]

15 December 2025

The United States’ ongoing repositioning of high-value combat assets to Roosevelt Roads is consistent with offensive action preparations. Likely against limited ground targets in Venezuela. 

• [18:00 CET] Three HH-60W “Jolly Green II” combat rescue helicopters were repositioned this weekend from Kadena Air Base in Japan to Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico. [source]
• [15:00 CET] Four of the EA-18G Growlers stationed in the Caribbean deployed on Saturday, with confirmed presence near Venezuela airspace being recorded on FlightRadar. [source]
• [07:00 CET] Public sources with direct access confirmed the arrival of a United States Navy Supply-class fast combat support ship (T-AOE-6) to Muelle de Ponce in Puerto Rico. [source]

11 December 2025

Emerging developments in the Southern Caribbean suggest that the United States is highly likely to board and seize additional petroleum tankers suspected of being involved in sanction-evasion activities in Venezuela 

• [21:00 CET] The United States Department of the Treasury sanctioned six additional shipping companies moving Venezuelan oil for “continuing to provide financial resources” to Nicolás Maduro. [source]
• [12:00 CET] Thomson Reuters estimates suggest that around 30 sanctioned vessels currently present in the Southern Caribbean could be targeted by the United States following the recent seizure operation. [source]
• [04:00 CET] The United States Coast Guard executed a seizure warrant yesterday against a sanctioned “shadow fleet” tanker believed to be moving petroleum from Venezuela into Cuba. [source]

10 December 2025

Miraflores is highly likely to experience additional jamming and spoofing in local long-range detection systems, as the Pentagon deploys advanced electronic warfare platforms in the Caribbean. 

• [19:00 CET] Recent images produced by Reuters photographers provide visual confirmation of the presence of at least six EA-18G Growlers stationed in Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico. [source]
• [19:00 CET] Further examination of the images depicting the “Scorpions” Electromagnetic Attack Squadron reveals the presence of AN/ALQ-249 and AN/ALQ-99 electronic warfare platforms. [source]

9 December 2025

The United States’ recent flights in the Gulf of Venezuela are consistent with our previous assessment of ongoing probing and harassment operations from Washington to degrade Caracas’ immediate response capabilities. 

• [19:00 CET] Two F/A-18s Super Hornets belonging to the United States were tracked today over public channels as they executed a show of force over the Gulf of Venezuela [source]
• [19:00 CET] The United States also deployed today two EA-18G Growlers into the Gulf of Venezuela without receiving prohibited interference from the Bolivarian Aviation [source]

8 December 2025

Based upon reports from human sources, we assess with medium confidence that local opposition leader María Corina may have been exfiltrated from Venezuela, likely with guidance or assistance from the United States.

• [14:00 CET] Grey Dynamics contacts with indirect access to the Venezuelan Opposition reported that Maria Corina is scheduled to make a public statement from a known hotel in Oslo, Norway.
• [12:00 CET] Additional sources in Venezuelan democratic circuits disclosed receiving confidential invitations to a major event taking place after the Nobel Prize award ceremony in Oslo, Norway.
• [09:00 CET] France-Presse reports that María Corina has informed the Nobel Institute she will travel to Norway to collect the Nobel Prize, though the exact travel date has not been disclosed.

7 December 2025

Hugo Carvajal’s public letter to Donald Trump is unlikely to influence ongoing intelligence collection operations of the United States concerning the Cartel de los Soles and Nicolás Maduro.

• [15:00 CET] Hugo Carvajal, the former head of Venezuela’s intelligence apparatus, published a “write-in” from prison expressing his willingness to cooperate as an information source for Donald Trump. [source]
• [14:00 CET] Hugo Carvajal has remained incarcerated without direct access for the past four years. Ground contacts in Madrid who interacted with the individual describe his information as outdated and unreliable.

3 December 2025

Public indicators suggest Nicolás Maduro is actively trying to negotiate his resignation in exchange for amnesty. However, we can not assess his intent with confidence given the absence of verifiable information from within Miraflores.

• [16:00 CET] Nicolás Maduro confirmed yesterday on national television that he held a “cordial conversation” with Donald Trump during last week, without providing further details [source]
• [14:00 CET] Bloomberg reports that a Brazilian billionaire related to Miraflores Palace, travelled to Venezuela intending to persuade Nicolás Maduro to resign and allow for a peaceful transition [source]
• [11:00 CET] Sources of Reuters with undermined access stated that Donald Trump refused several requests from Nicolás Maduro during a telephone conversation ten days ago. [source, source]

2 December 2025

Caracas’s integrated anti-air batteries are assessed to be dispersed across the country to ensure operational continuity in the event Washington decides to strike, and we do not see any indications that this disposition will be altered in the near term.

• [23:00 CET] Publicly Available Information uploaded nine months ago displayed the Venezuelan Armed Forces merging an Antey-2500 anti-ballistic missile system with a Pechora-2 surface-to-air platform. [source]
• [22:00 CET] Venezuelan experts with extensive knowledge of the local military assessed that three different anti-aircraft groups have reinforced their batteries with Antey-2500 anti-ballistic missile system as of today [source]

1 December 2025

Commercial aviation deferrals between the European Union and Venezuela largely converge with Grey Dynamics’ earlier assessments of heightened airspace restrictions; we assess that these are still likely to increase through December.

• [18:00 CET]  Venezuela’s Institute of Civil Aeronautics issued a notice today, restricting general aviation operations within the Maiquetía Flight Information Region due to ongoing military operations [source]
• [12:00 CET] Spain extended its recommendation to avoid flights into Venezuela due to the presence of long-range anti-aircraft weapons and a lack of coordination between the parties in conflict. [source]
• [06:00 CET] Air Europe suspended their flights into Venezuela for the next two weeks, while Iberia Airlines extended its ongoing operational interruption into January. [source, source]

30 November 2025

Given the actual disposition of Venezuelan forces, we assess that Miraflores is conveying additional platforms and personnel into coastal sectors designated by its command as strategically significant.

• [18:00 CET] Nicolás Maduro’s Counterintelligence Directorate established checkpoints along the Caracas – Vargas main road, with auxiliary routes being closed to civilian traffic. [source]
• [12:00 CET] Footage released over the weekend by the Venezuelan military displays senior officers conducting preparatory defence activities in the eastern coastline of the country  [source]
• [06:00 CET] Venezuelan conflict trackers with ground access in Anzoategui visually confirmed that a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher system was deployed today in Lecheria. [source]

29 November 2025

Despite the reported negotiations between Caracas and Washington, Donald Trump’s displays no indication of easing his stance on Nicolás Maduro. Venezuelan airspace is also likely to become more restricted in December.

• [17:00 CET] Donald Trump stated today on Truth Social that the airspace above and around Venezuela should be considered closed for civil pilots and commercial carriers [source]
• [12:00 CET] According to unknown sources in Argentinian media, Donald Trump warned Nicolás Maduro that continued refusal to step down would result in increased military action. [source]

28 November 2025

Nicolás Maduro appears to be addressing the ongoing pressure in the Southern Caribbean by prioritising internal security and escalating measures against dissident groups. Political detentions are almost certain to continue in Venezuela.

• [23:00 CET] Residents of Sucre related to the individuals killed in the boat strike informed Reuters that they were visited and threatened by the unknown officers from the Counterintelligence Directorate.[source]
• [20:00 CET] Since the onset of tensions in the Caribbean, political detentions in Venezuela increased by 62% compared with the same period last year, with reported detentions occurring every 32 hours [source]
• [15:00 CET] Local journalists with ground access in Venezuela report a massive internal security deployment in Caracas, with police and military units restricting vehicular movement in strategic areas. [source]

27 November 2025

Considering the surge of threats impacting navigation systems near Venezuela, there is a realistic possibility that major carriers will maintain over the coming month the suspension of their operations in the country

• [21:00 CET] Washington’s Federal Aviation Administration detected a sustained increase in electronic interference around the Maiquetia Flight Information Region [source]
• [15:00 CET] Nicolás Maduro revoked the operating rights of six major international airlines that had suspended their flights into Venezuela following security concerns. [source]
• [09:00 CET] Lisboa officially stated that the insufficient security conditions in Venezuela prevented its state-owned commercial airline from operating flights to Caracas [source]

26 November 2025

Aerial incursions into Venezuela are likely to continue. Washington’s probing operations are forcing Caracas to sustain a constant readiness posture, eroding its capacity to maintain an immediate response capability.

• [15:00 CET] Two F/A-18E Super Hornets from the United States Navy were spotted yesterday on Flight Radar moving through the Dutch Caribbean. [source]
• [09:00 CET] Spanish authorities strongly advised commercial airlines from conducting operations within Venezuelan airspace due to “increased military activity” [source]

25 November 2025

The United States has likely established aerial superiority over Venezuela and the Caribbean, with probing manoeuvres and airspace incursions being executed without prohibitive interference.

• [13:00 CET] One B-52 Stratofortress and three F/A-18E Super Hornet performed yesterday another aerial incursion inside Venezuelan airspace without interference from Caracas [source]
• [09:00 CET] Publicly Available Information collectors detected yesterday a United States Air Force E-2D Hawkeye moving north of Los Roques Archipelago. [source, source]
• [05:00 CET] Following yesterday statements from Air Europa and Plus Ultra, a total of eleven commercial airlines have cancelled their international operations in Venezuela. [source]

24 November 2025

The Cartel de los Soles’ designation as a foreign terrorist organisation has not driven any significant or noticeable changes in the Southern Caribbean as of today. Washington maintains its current disposition and intention against Caracas. 

• [18:00 CET] Three B-52 Stratofortress from the United States Air Force were spotted taking off from Minot Air Force Base and heading presumably toward the Southern Caribbean. [source]
• [12:00 CET] Laser and Stelar announced the suspension of their Caracas – Madrid flights for the remainder of the week.  As of today, there are a total of eight airlines avoiding Venezuela. [source]
• [00:00 CET] Nicolás Maduro and the Cartel de los Soles have been officially designated by the United States as a foreign terrorist organisation. [source, source, source]

23 November 2025

Compounding indicators suggest the White House is going to escalate its posture against Nicolás Maduro in the next days, with clandestine activities or limited strikes being highly likely after the terrorist designation takes effect.

• [13:00 CET] Several airlines cancelled their flights to Venezuela on Saturday after the United States warned civil aviation operators of increased military activity in the Caribbean [source]
• [09:00 CET] Four different Washington sources reported yesterday to Reuters that the United States is preparing another operational phase against Nicolás Maduro. [source]
• [09:00 CET] According to the same established sources quoted by Reuters, the United States is likely to conduct covert action against Nicolás Maduro in the coming days. [source]

22 November 2025

The United States Navy is highly likely to increase the pressure on the Venezuelan Armed Forces through sustained presence in the theatre of operations, and we don’t see any indications that this assumption could change. 

• [18:00 CET] The United States Naval Institute indicates that approximately one-third of the United States Navy’s underway fleet is allocated to the Southern Command area of responsibility. [source]
• [15:00 CET] Analysis of satellite imagery by the New York Times indicates that the United States Navy has maintained a persistent presence approximately one hundred kilometres off Venezuela. [source]
• [12:00 CET] The United States Federal Aviation Administration issued an advisory yesterday, alerting airlines of a “potentially hazardous situation” in the Maiquetia Flight Information Region [source]

21 November 2025

The United States’ recent aerial activity in the Southern Caribbean is broadly consistent with a pattern of strike-package simulation and target-area familiarisation. Caracas’ long-range detection systems were highly likely probed by the Pentagon.

• [01:00 CET] Additional airframes belonging to the United States, including three KC-46 Pegasus and three B-52H Stratofortress, were also spotted near Northern Venezuela. [source, source]
• [00:30 CET] Online flight tracking accounts spotted at least four F/A-18E Super Hornet multirole fighters from three different squads, flying off the coast of Venezuela. [source]
• [00:00 CET] The Venezuelan Airspace Defence Command picked and tracked a United States RC-135 Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft in the Southern Caribbean [source, source]

20 November 2025

Russia is almost certain to maintain a presence in Venezuela through military advisors. Nevertheless, we assess that Moscow’s activities in Caracas are unlikely to drive any significant changes to the ongoing flashpoint in the Caribbean.

• [19:00 CET] The Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate assesses that Russia currently have over a hundred military advisors in Venezuela as part of Equator Task Force [source]
• [18:00 CET] Publicly Available Information collected today displays heightened and sustained military activity by the United States Air Force in the Caribbean  [source, source]
• [17:00 CET] The United States continues to expand its military installations in El Salvador’s Comalapa Air Base, including the installation of drone-support structures. [source]

19 November 2025

The United States’ current policy stance against Nicolás Maduro suggests that limited military operations or covert intelligence activities designed to degrade critical regime-supporting assets have a realistic possibility of happening. 

• [01:00 CET] The New York Times reports that the White House rejected a transition agreement pitched by Nicolás Maduro through the Central Intelligence Agency [source]
• [01:00 CET] According to the same article, the United States is also planning for covert operations and kinetic strikes on military units close to Nicolás Maduro. [source]

18 November 2025

Despite the ongoing efforts of Caracas to negotiate an agreement through informal channels with Washington, the available indicators suggest that the Pentagon is preparing for elevated operational activity in the Caribbean.

• [23:00 CET] The United States released a Notice to Airmen warning of a potentially dangerous situation in the San Juan Flight Information Region due to increased state operations.[source]
• [21:00 CET] Donald Trump said yesterday that he would not rule out sending United States troops into Venezuela, as the White House considers taking military action against Nicolás Maduro. [source]
• [20:00 CET] United States Navy Ships Iwo Jima (LHD-7) and Fort Lauderdale (LPD28) were spotted through satellite imagery 73 kilometres from the coast of Venezuela. [source]

17 November 2025

There is a realistic possibility that Nicolás Maduro could engage in back-channel diplomacy with the White House before the foreign terrorist designation deadline, but the outcome of this scenario remains undetermined.

• [00:30 CET] Donald Trump, addressing reporters in West Palm Beach, indicated that informal communications channels may be opening with Nicolás Maduro as of November 16. [source]
• [00:00 CET] The State Department is preparing to designate the Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO), with the designation scheduled to take effect on 24 November. [source]

16 November 2025

Venezuela’s National Armed Forces are likely to expand training initiatives emphasising command decentralisation and dispersed operations in response to the current disposition of United States military assets in the Southern Caribbean.

• [18:00 CET] Venezuelan military documents that were leaked online display existing directives to execute force-dispersal protocols across priority military installations in the event of a foreign incursion [source]
• [17:00 CET] Nicolás Maduro has directed his supporters to heighten situational awareness in the country’s eastern operational zone following the announcement of military exercises in Trinidad and Tobago. source]
• [16:00 CET] The Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group has been officially confirmed in theatre, having deployed to the Caribbean under the operational framework of Joint Task Force Southern Spear. [source]

15 November 2025

Based on emerging indicators that include increasing military presence and escalatory political signalling, we assess that the scenario of Washington conducting possible military operations against Caracas is now more likely.

• [14:00 CET] Reuters reports that senior United States officials met on three separate occasions this week to review and deliberate potential military courses of action regarding Venezuela. [source]
• [11:00 CET] Donald Trump officially disclosed this Friday that he has “sort of made up” his mind regarding the possibility of military action inside Venezuela. [source]
• [07:00 CET] Fighter pilots aboard the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier have been studying the defensive capabilities of the Venezuelan military, including anti-air systems locations. [sources]

14 November 2025

Donald Trump signals intent to commit to a broader military deployment in the Southern Caribbean, including the realistic possibility of authorising ground strikes inside Venezuela to increase the pressure on Nicolas Maduro.

• [01:00 CET] United States Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth announced the launch of Operation Southern Spear to “remove narco-terrorists from our hemisphere” [source]
• [00:30 CET] Senior military officials briefed Donald Trump on updated options for potential operations in Venezuela, including kinetic strikes on the ground [source]
• [00:00 CET] Multiple media outlets report the United States executed another kinetic strike in the Southern Caribbean against a civilian vessel suspected of being involved in narcotics smuggling. [source] [source]

13 November 2025

The Pentagon is currently expanding its probing manoeuvres against Caracas from the aerial domain into the maritime sphere, and we do not see any indications that this assessment could change in the short term. 

• [16:00 CET] The United States Ship Gettysburg (CG-64) also moved through Aruba and Curaçao this Thursday, sailing along the Venezuelan coast off Falcon [source]
• [15:00 CET] The Arleigh Burke Flight IIA-Class Destroyer, United States Ship Stockdale (DDG-106), transited today 48 kilometres off the coast of Venezuela. [source]

12 November 2025

There is a realistic possibility that Nicolás Maduro will redirect his defence strategy against the United States, as actual indicators suggest an intent to focus on asymmetric warfare rather than conventional warfare.

• [15:00 CET] According to confidential planning documents obtained by Reuters, Nicolás Maduro is planning to mount a guerrilla-style resistance in the event of a United States ground attack. [source]
• [12:00 CET] Established sources from Reuters inside the Venezuelan regime reported that the guerrilla strategy would involve sabotage activities by intelligence officers and armed civilians. [source]
• [10:00 CET] Venezuela Defence Minister Padrino Lopez announced yesterday a massive nationwide military mobilisation in response to the United States military buildup in the Southern Caribbean. [source]

11 November 2025

The United States shows no signs of stopping the military buildup in the Southern Caribbean. It’s almost certain that the Southern Command will continue increasing its combat capabilities and available firepower in the coming weeks.

• [19:00 CET] The United States Navy confirmed today the arrival of the Gerald Ford (CVN-78) Carrier Strike Group to the Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) Area of Operations (AOR) [source]
• [16:00 CET] Centre for Strategic and International Studies data shows the United States’ buildup in the Southern Pacific is currently at its highest capacity since the beginning of the deployment. [source]
• [12:00 CET] United States kinetic strikes in the Eastern Pacific and the Southern Caribbean intensified from four strikes per week in September to seven strikes per week in October [source]

10 November 2025

Ongoing operations by the United States broadly correspond with Grey Dynamics’ previous assessments of gunship employment against targeted vessels, and we do not expect this trend to change in the short term.

• [15:00 CET] United States Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth announced the targeting and destruction of two vessels and six individuals suspected of smuggling narcotics in the Eastern Pacific. [source]
• [14:00 CET] FLIR footage of the latest kinetic strike conducted by the United States suggests GAU-23/As canons and GBU-69/Bs bombs from an AC-130J gunship were likely used in the attack [source]
• [13:00 CET] Grey Dynamics assessed two days ago that the AC-130J Ghostrider recently deployed to Comalapa Air Base was likely to engage and destroy suspected smuggling vessels. [source]

09 November 2025

The United States is currently in a position to enable intelligence collection operations or covert action activities in the Southern Caribbean and Northern Venezuela through special mission units if it chooses to do so.

• [15:00 CET] Multiple Latin American analysts reported yesterday that an indeterminate number of Combatant Craft Assault patrol boats were likely to be aboard the Ocean Trader [source]
• [13:00 CET] Further examination of European Union Satellite Agency public data displays an Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyer escorting the Ocean Trader in the Southern Caribbean  [source]
• [00:00 CET] United States special operations forces mothership Ocean Trader was spotted yesterday by the European Union Satellite Agency near Venezuela, west of Granada. [source]

08 November 2025

The United States is expanding and enhancing its offensive capabilities by deploying aerial assets in Central America. Based on the available information, we assess that these airframes are likely to target and engage smuggling vessels in the Caribbean.

• [12:00 CET] The Latin American Aviation Historical Society confirmed yesterday through photographic evidence the presence of an AC-130J Ghostrider in El Salvador’s Comalapa Air Base [source]
• [09:00 CET] Analysis of air traffic control and flight tracking data published on November revealed the Pentagon is operating heavy gunships and surveillance planes out of El Salvador since October [source]
• [00:00 CET] United States defence officials cited by War Zone media claimed the Trump Administration is currently surveying locations to deploy additional armed assets to the Caribbean. [source]

07 November 2025

Caracas is unlikely to escalate Washington’s increasing approaches to national airspace, as recent incursions were deconflicted through ground orders in military bases. Operations regarding lethal strikes in the Caribbean are almost certain to continue.

• [16:00 CET] The Pentagon confirmed yesterday at midnight that another vessel suspected to be running narcotics was targeted and destroyed in the Caribbean along with its three occupants [source]
• [11:00 CET] According to a local aviation expert, Libertador Air Force Base command issued a ground order to military airframes as the United States Air Force presence was detected on the coastline [source]
• [06:00 CET] Two Boeing B-52 Stratofortress from the United States Air Force made another probing manoeuvre near Venezuela during last night, moving parallel to the coastline from Falcon to Miranda [source]

06 November 2025

Nicolás Maduro is conveying police officers from special teams and regular patrols into military duties and counterintelligence efforts. We do not see any signs that this trend will abate under the current circumstances of the military buildup.

• [16:00 CET] The Venezuelan Police assigned today an indeterminate number of its special operators to military duties, including joint sentry patrols, in the Barlovento – Miranda coastal region. [source]
• [11:30 CET] Official statements from the Venezuelan Police confirm ongoing operations of uniformed officers in Caracas to monitor and account foreign nationals visiting the country. [source]

05 November 2025

The United States does not display any indications that it will cease its ongoing pattern of kinetic strikes in the Southern Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific. Washington is also likely to continue probing Caracas’ long-range detection systems.

• [19:00 CET] Flight Radar data collected by open source military analysts show a United States Boeing Stratotanker flying 160 kilometres away from La Orchila Island in the Southern Caribbean [source]
• [09:00 CET] According to information reported by the Pentagon, the United States have launched 16 kinetic strikes and killed 67 targeted individuals in the Southern Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific as of today. [source] 
• [02:00 CET] United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced the execution of another lethal kinetic strike against a suspected vessel involved in narcotics smuggling. [source]

04 November 2025

Roosevelt Roads is likely to remain as a staging point for the United States military forces in the Caribbean, as current indicators suggest the Pentagon is preparing for sustained operations involving air and sea assets.

• [21:00 CET] Satellogic and SkyfiApp satellite imagery of the Roosevelt Roads Naval Station displays eight F-35 Lightning II fighters and two C-17 Globemaster transports airlifters currently stationed in Puerto Rico [source]
• [17:00 CET] Research from Reuters confirms the United States is upgrading Roosevelt Roads’ operational capabilities and building ammunition storage facilities at civilian airports in the Virgin Islands [source]
• [13:00 CET] USS Gerald Ford (CVN-78) aircraft carrier and USS Bainbridge (DDG-96) missile destroyer passed through the Strait of Gibraltar earlier this morning, en route to the Southern Caribbean. [source]