Executive Summary 

In Venezuela, any armed conflict or democratic transition under pressure from Washington will likely strain Caracas’s ability to control state-owned weapons. Russian surface-to-air missiles constitute the most serious counter-proliferation concern, as the actual stockpile is estimated to be in the thousands, deployed through different regions of Venezuela. 

Nicolás Maduro’s intent to disperse military units and adopt irregular warfare tactics in the event of an attack by the United States, if realised, will likely further increase opportunities for proliferation. Compounding this issue, local storage practices for portable guided missiles do not meet international safety guidelines and increase the probability of weapons diversion by threat actors.

Non-state actors operating along the Colombian border, such as Colombian Revolutionary Forces, are likely to continue benefitting from the diversion of Venezuelan small arms and fragmentation grenade stockpiles, as they have during the last two decades.