Executive Summary

We assess that the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company (PMC), did not fully unify Mali under the current government’s control, despite claims of the opposite. Additionally, we assess that terrorist groups such as Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (IS-GS) will likely retain the capability and determination to conduct attacks inside the country in the foreseeable future.

In June 2025, Wagner group announced its withdrawal from Mali, stating that they accomplished their mission. Africa Corps, a paramilitary group officially associated with the Russian Ministry of Defence,  will take over the Wagner operations.

Despite persistent security threats, Russia continues to grow its influence in the region through military and civilian partnerships with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Unified under the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), these countries are governed by juntas following a series of military coups during 2021-2023. After ousting Western businesses and all military presence from their territory, they sought closer partnerships with Russia.

Images Sourced From: Africa Corps