Executive Summary

Recently, Europe has seen a sharp rise in anti-immigration, anti-refugee sentiment, sparking waves of protests and public unrest in the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and beyond. In parallel is Russia’s marked expansion and prioritisation of psychological operations and information warfare, making them a central instrument of its core strategic method: attacking adversaries from within. Fostering internal division and sowing discord in foreign states has long been part of Moscow’s playbook, but has now become a hallmark of modern hybrid warfare, with Russia at the forefront of its application. [source, source]

We assess that Russia is highly likely conducting anti-immigrant and anti-refugee information operations across Europe and is highly likely to increase both scale and frequency of these campaigns. These operations are increasingly assisted by AI, and such tactics are expanding rapidly. Furthermore, we assess that one strategic aim of Russia’s anti-immigration agitprop is to create political conditions favourable to actors aligned with Moscow’s interests.

* For additional insights into other ways through which Moscow exploits immigration as part of its hybrid warfare strategy, see the Grey Dynamics report: Weaponised Migration as State-Sponsored Covert Action.