Executive Summary

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is progressively exhibiting characteristics associated with a world war* rather than remaining confined to a purely dyadic or proxy framework, a limited interstate conflict. This assessment is based on available information on the scale, actors, nature and global effects of the ongoing events. 

More specifically, the expanding foreign military participation on the physical battlefield has increased the complexity of the conflict, which is sustained by a globalised military-industrial and intelligence system, with major powers playing a pivotal role. Meanwhile, Russia is engaging in horizontal escalation against states supporting Ukraine, while those coalition states respond collectively, demonstrating major bloc hostilities rather than a binary interstate conflict. The hostilities are generating systemic consequences consistent with the effects of a global war—rather than a contained regional war—across energy, food, economic and governance systems.

*Background: The concept of a “world war” is contested and often applied retrospectively, as was the case with the Second World War. Jack Levy, a leading scholar of war, offers one of the most widely cited definitions, describing it as the involvement of the leading power in the system, the active participation of most great powers, and sustained and intense combat. Further scholarship has refined this approach by emphasising that world wars should be defined not only by participation, but by the systemic consequences generated by a conflict. [source, source, source]