Ivory Coast is increasingly becoming a field of competition between the West and Russia as it is facing the rising threat of terrorism. Yet, Macron has repeatedly expressed his willingness to develop a more equal, reciprocal, and responsible relationship, putting forward Ivorian needs and heritage.

Key Judgement 1: It is highly likely that France will seek to maintain its influence in Ivory Coast through non-military channels.

Key Judgement 2: It is likely that, while Ivory Coast is diversifying its military suppliers, while still heavily relying on France.

Key Judgement 3: It is highly likely that Russia will maintain and reinforce its influence in Ivory Coast through both overt and covert means.