The security situation in El Salvador has been a major concern for many years, having one of the highest murder rates in the world (source). The country struggles with gang violence, drug trafficking, and organised crime, mainly from MS-13 and Barrio 18. The government of El Salvador, headed by President Nayib Bukele, has enforced tough measures that appear to be effective. However, they are also criticised as extreme, with concerns about arbitrariness and human rights violations.

Key judgement 1. It is highly likely that in the next 12 months, the Salvadoran government, headed by President Bukele, will continue with its strict policies against crime in the country.

Key judgement 2. It is likely that in the next 12 months, the Salvadoran government policies will lead to lower crime rates, increasing its popularity at home and in neighbouring countries.

Key judgement 3. It is highly likely that in the next 12 months, the Salvadoran government’s policies will continue raising concerns about human rights violations, as well as criticisms of arbitrary detentions.