On 15 April 2023, fighting erupted between the Sudanese military junta and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). It appears as if the military and RSF have descended into all-out conflict. There is no visible path for de-escalation at the moment. Reports are emerging of civilian casualties and targeted airstrikes by the Sudanese Air Force. US diplomatic staff are reportedly sheltering in place at the US diplomatic compound. This episode of violence could be the potential ignition point for a broader civil war in a country already struggling to transition to civilian rule.

Key Judgement-1: It is highly likely that armed hostilities between the RSF and the Sudanese military will continue in the next 3 months.

Key Judgement-2: It is unlikely that the RSF will topple the military junta or gain complete control over Khartoum in the next 3 months.

Key Judgement-3: It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will publicly side with either party in the conflict in the next 3 months.