As of 3 December, 2023, the East African Community peacekeeping force in the Congo began to withdraw from the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). At least 100 Kenyan troops departed Goma Airport for Nairobi and were followed by Ugandan and South Sudanese soldiers. The withdrawal follows a breakdown of understanding between DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and the East African Community (EAC) in November. These developments present a complication in the effort to pacify North Kivu and the resurgent M23 insurgency. We expect a deteriorating trend in North Kivu following withdrawal. Moreover, we expect further strains on the relationship between the DRC and the wider EAC. Finally, we also examine the impact of the EAC’s withdrawal to Tshisekedi’s domestic political prospects in the upcoming national elections.

Key Judgement 1: It is highly likely that M23 rebels will capture Goma in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 2: It is likely that Tshisekedi’s relationship with the EAC will continue to deteriorate, resulting in further complications to EAC integration in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 3: It is likely that Tshisekedi will use tensions with the EAC and Rwanda to win votes in the upcoming elections.