On 14 January, Comoros’ President Azali Assoumani secured his fourth term with an alleged 62.7% of the votes amid a severely low turnout. Assoumani first came to power in a coup in 1999, and subsequently served one presidential term from 2002-2006.

Upon his return in 2018, he suspended the Constitutional Court, a democratically elected body. He then transferred its electoral duties to the Supreme Court, whose members are appointed by the President himself. This move enabled Assoumani to secure a second consecutive term in the contested 2019 election, despite 12 opposition candidates rejecting the results. Observers from the African Union reported the vote was marred by irregularities [source].

This report thus addresses Comoros’ internal unrest, Assoumani’s usurpation of his presidential role in the constitutional scheme, and a campaign of political repression. [source].

Key Judgement 1. Comoros’ January 2024 elections will likely drive internal unrest and opposition protests.

Key Judgement 2. The international community will likely support Assoumani’s electoral ascension.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that the Comoros’ security forces will wage a campaign of political repression.