On 30 January there was an assassination attempt targeting the newly appointed Minister of Agriculture in Western Bahr el Ghazal State in South Sudan. The war in Sudan and land disputes are intensifying violence and instability in the region. The Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese army are recruiting South Sudanese youth and assassination attempts targeting government officials [source]. Moreover, the Abyei region, a disputed part of the border, has seen violence that claims numerous lives, including UN peacekeepers. Escalating and compounding conflict dynamics suggest a grim outlook for peace and stability in South Sudan in the next year.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that Sudanese recruitment of young South Sudanese as fighters and the flow of illegal weapons will contribute to escalating conflict and instability in the region.

Key Judgement 2. Armed groups in Abyei will likely target civilians and peacekeepers in order to intimidate opposing factions in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that inter-tribal conflicts over land and resources will  displace large numbers of South Sudanese civilians  in the next 12 months.