On the 7th of November 2023, the Hungarian government approved a military mission to Chad, set to commence in the spring of 2024. This operation aims to fortify regional stability through migration management, counterterrorism, and humanitarian support. Chad’s strategic position in the Sahel underpins the mission’s significance, as it intersects with European interests in mitigating migration and enhancing security. The mission’s alignment with these interests, amidst EU legal contentions over Hungary’s internal policies, presents a complex diplomatic landscape. Political obstacles, in addition to the challenging nature of the mission, will complicate Hungary’s mission in the near term.

Key Judgement 1. Hungary will likely encounter opposition from other EU states in the next 12 months due to recent legal disputes.

Key Judgement 2. Hungary will likely deploy soldiers to Chad in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. The mission will likely provide humanitarian relief and contribute to stabilising the region in the next 12 months.