On 14 December 2023, Georgia was granted EU candidate status by the European Council. The ruling Georgian Dream party has adopted a multi-vector foreign policy, hoping to appease Russia and the European Union. An April 2023 poll showed that the Georgian people are overwhelmingly in favour of joining the EU, with 89% wanting to join the bloc. [source]

Georgian Dream must however balance the nation’s European aspirations with the Russian security threat.  Since June 2021, Russia has been building a new Black Sea naval base in occupied Abkhazia. [source] In October 2023, Georgian Dream refused to condemn the naval base. Consequently, Georgian opposition has branded the ruling party as pro-Russian despite Georgia hosting NATO in November 2023. The next 12 months are crucial for “Georgian Dream” as they attempt to balance EU-Russian influence in the run-up to the October 2024 Parliamentary elections.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that “Georgian Dream” party will win a majority of seats in the 2024 parliamentary election.

Key Judgement 2. It is unlikely Georgia will make significant progress towards full EU or NATO membership if the Georgian Dream party wins the 2024 election.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely the Black Sea Fleet will move to Russia’s new port in Abkhazia upon its completion.