On 6 March, the M23 took over Nyanzale in eastern Congo, killing at least 15 people in bomb attacks. The resurgence of the M23 rebel group in eastern Congo escalated tensions, leading to significant humanitarian concerns and regional instability. The M23, known for its capture of Goma in 2012, has intensified its advances, seizing towns, and expanding its control. Further, this resurgence threatens to exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation in eastern Congo. And, it threatens to cut major cities off from receiving essential supplies and aid. 

Key Judgement 1. The Congolese government will likely increase military engagement and interventions by regional forces to forestall the M23’s expansion in the next 12 months. 

Key Judgement 2. Humanitarian crises in eastern Congo will likely worsen, with significant displacements and shortages of food and medical supplies.

Key Judgement 3. The DRC’s relations with Rwanda will likely worsen in the next 12 months, because of support for the M23.