EU Battlegroups, originally conceived as a multinational rapid reaction force for crises, have been unused due to political deadlock among member states and issues surrounding national sovereignty and funding. Despite calls for a unified European army, challenges in consensus-building and command authority persist. While initiatives like the European Intervention Initiative show promise, NATO’s dominance in European defence underscores the uncertainty surrounding the future of EU Battlegroups.

As political divisions persist and NATO maintains its central role, the fate of EU Battlegroups remains uncertain. Further, this uncertainty is emblematic of broader challenges in European defence integration and collective security efforts. Notably, EUROCORPS, assuming the role of Deployable Force Headquarters, highlights renewed efforts, with the next rotation scheduled for 2025. However, the underlying hurdles to deployment continue to cast doubt on their operational effectiveness.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely recent changes will shift the divergent national interests and concerns over sovereignty, which limit progress towards a unified European army and the deployment of EU Battlegroups.

Key Judgement 2. It is unlikely that initiatives such as the European Intervention Initiative will fully resolve the challenges of consensus-building and command authority faced by EU Battlegroups.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that NATO will remain the dominant force in European defense for the foreseeable future, maintaining its central role in regional security and casting uncertainty on the operational effectiveness and relevance of EU Battlegroups.