China’s military capabilities are expanding rapidly. The Global Firepower index now denotes China as a top 5 global military power, with an estimated force of 3 million military personnel (source). Since Xi Jinping came to power, China’s military capabilities have risen significantly across ground, air, maritime, space, and information domains. This has been motivated by Jinping’s desire for China to be a strong leader and imposing force on the global stage. Recently, Jinping’s desire for ‘reunification’ with Taiwan has further driven their military development. This year, despite slowing economic growth, China has again raised their defence budget by 7.2%. However, many estimate their true total military spending to be significantly higher still.  

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that China is rapidly building its military forces, reflecting long-term strategic goals, and an intention to be an almost unrivalled military force.

Key Judgment 2. It is likely that China’s navy will soon overtake the US’s navy to become the world’s most powerful maritime force.

Key Judgment 3. It is likely that China plans to use ‘strategic strong points’ in international trade routes and naval ports to expand its military capabilities.