Executive Summary

We assess that Russian influence operations are increasingly leveraging disinformation and military actions to expand the Kremlin’s influence in West Africa and the Sahel. This strategy has been evident in the past five years, where diplomatic moves and disinformation campaigns have played a pivotal role in the political changes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These efforts have facilitated the establishment of regimes favourable to Moscow, significantly countering French-led counterterrorism initiatives in the region.

The situation in West Africa and the Sahel is marked by complex security challenges, including the presence of jihadist groups and ongoing political instability. Russia’s military presence, notably through the Wagner Group, has been unable to secure key areas such as Bamako, with jihadist groups maintaining pressure on regional capitals. This highlights the limitations of Russia’s military-centric approach, which fails to address the root causes of terrorism and instability.

Despite Russia’s strategic efforts to gain a foothold, the overstretched military operations and reliance on disinformation may not yield sustainable results. The region’s instability is likely to persist, with potential ramifications for local governance and international security dynamics. As the situation evolves, the international community must consider the broader implications of Russia’s actions in West Africa and the Sahel.