Spain is one of the countries of Western Europe most affected by Russian influence operations. Russia often targets Spain through covert missions against their national interest and foreign allies. Activities carried out by Russia paramilitary assets and propaganda agents in Spain include operational support of separatist militants in Catalonia and suspected targeted assassinations related to Ukraine.
The Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) influence operations in Barcelona and Madrid are confirmed by Spain’s High Court investigations and Centro de Inteligencia National (CNI) counterintelligence deployments. And, The Spanish Army also identified hundreds of nationals operating for Russia’s disinformation collective.
Among detected propaganda agents are armed forces personnel and recognized authors from the academic ecosystem. Further, 2024 could be the year of Spanish intelligence shifting the defense strategy into a nationwide offense. This isalready seen by the latest arrest of Russian cyberwarfare assets in Andalusia and Mallorca.
Key Judgement 1. There is a realistic probability Russian influence operations and paramilitary activities will continue in Spain through academic voices and defense personalities.
Key Judgement 2. It is likely that the Spanish Government will deploy counterintelligence measures as a response to escalated activity by the Russian Federation.
Key Judgement 3. There is a realistic probability that interference in Catalonia through Russian influence operations will remain the main threat to the Spanish Government.
KJ-1. There is a realistic probability Russian influence operations and paramilitary activities will continue in Spain through academic voices and defense personalities.
- Spain had in the last years a 2,000% increase in Russian propaganda activities. Main goals of the influence operations are aimed at destroying credibility of European institutions and Spanish democracy (Source).
- Spanish Army identified a propaganda ecosystem of 179 operators and 279 working in interest to the Russian Federation. Among the identified assets are active military personnel and know academic voices (Sources).
- There are credible indications of Russian covert actions in Spain, including the targeted assassination of a military defector (Source) (Source).
KJ-2. It is likely that the Spanish Government will deploy counterintelligence measures as a response to escalated activity by the Russian Federation.
- The Centro Nacional de Inteligencia (CNI) have increased their surveillance activities against perceived threats from the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU). (Source)
- Spain’s National Security Council approved prevntative interference at the start of the year. Specifically, against Russia and China. (Source)
- Russian operators have been arrested in Spain for engaging in cyberwarfare (Source)
KJ-3. There is a realistic probability that interference in Catalonia through Russian influence operations will remain the main threat to the Spanish Government.
- Operators of the Main Intelligence Directorate Unit 29155 took part in influence operations against the Spanish Government during the Catalonia Process (Source)
- London and Langley intelligence services detected continue destabilization actions by Russians in Spain, with specific focus on Catalonia (Source)(Source)
- In the past, Catalonian sepratists have received financial support from the Russian Federation. Specifically in exchange for destabilization operations. (Source)(Source)
Analytical Summary
We are confident in our assessment that Russia will continue to execute influence operations and covert missions in Spain against their national interest and foreign allies. Activities mentioned in this report include cyberwarfare efforts and propaganda networks documented by the Spanish Army and the Spanish intelligence. Further, most of the information collected comes from judicial records reported in media as well as criminal operations made public by local authorities.
Intelligence Cut-off date: 5 August 2024