Executive Summary

In the wake of the January 2025 U.S. withdrawal of foreign aid from the Global South, Beijing is maintaining its respective investment and development approaches advancing in Africa and Asia. Moscow is also maintaining a steady course by using the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) to establish relations across Africa. Simultaneously it is building its own national-level foreign aid agency. Meanwhile, U.S. withdrawal from the playing field has emboldened local elements, anti-democratic actors, and extremists to challenge state actors and US-allies across the Sahel. 

Chinese investment remains consistent with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) targets, and infrastructure related financing and aid. USAID’s shutdown provides breathing space for this trend to continue or even accelerate. More specifically, it allows Beijing time and options. China can consolidate infrastructure and strategic investments while claiming the optics of the ‘good-samaritan’ to tap, if not push, anti-US sentiments. 

Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s strategy towards Africa and the Global South continues to be executed primarily through ROC. The ROC fosters economic, humanitarian and political presence in the target regions. At the same time, Russia’s fledgling state agency for aid is set to expand.

Image Sourced From: USCG