Executive Summary

Since 2022, when the Taliban imposed a ban on poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, production has spilled across borders, particularly into neighbouring Pakistan. Evidence indicates Pakistan has overtaken Afghanistan as a global giant in the opium trade and is likely to maintain this position over the next five years. Furthermore, this shift is reinforced by indications that elements of Pakistan’s state security apparatus are complicit. Furthermore, the surge in poppy cultivation—especially in the locations where it is now expanding—is likely to deepen a narcotics-insurgency nexus in the region, potentially increasing operationality of local terrorist groups.