Executive Summary

Australia’s strategy to gain influence within Oceania governments as a counterbalance to China has deepened its defence cooperation with Port Moresby. This likely locks it into a long-term competition with Beijing for Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) allegiance. China, in turn, is working to counter deepening Australia-PNG ties through soft power initiatives. It also remains unclear the extent to which Beijing will go to prevail. However, its show of force in the region in 2025 is likely part of its effort to influence Port Moresby and nudge out Canberra. We expect Beijing to continue flexing its military muscle in the region for this purpose into 2026.