Executive Summary

Russia continues the expansion of its footprint in Africa through private military contractors. The Ministry of Defence’s restructured successor to the Wagner Group, the Africa Corps, will highly likely deploy to West Africa under a cooperation agreement Russia signed with Togo.

The Kremlin is likely to leverage regional instability to justify deployments and fill partner forces’ gaps under the guise of military consultancy. Consistent with its operations in Mali and Niger, as well as Burkina Faso and Central Africa, the Kremlin’s presence in Togo is likely to focus its main operations on counterinsurgency and counterterrorism.

Furthermore, conditions in Benin would allow for any Russian expansion into Togo to go even further, as Cotonou and Moscow display indicators of moving toward a bilateral agreement focused on security. Public statements by Russian and Beninese officials signal a growing interest in military cooperation.