On 11 March, Saad al-Awlaki succeeded Khalid Batarfi to become the new leader of al-Qaeda Arabian Province (AQAP). Leading AQAP since 2020, Batarfi died of natural causes unlike his predecessor Qasim al-Raymi, who was killed by a US airstrike in 2020. Since 2017, AQAP’s offensive capabilities have been seriously degraded by US and Yemeni counter-terrorism campaigns. Between 2017 and 2023, AQAP terror-related fatalities fell by 70% from 771 to 235. [source]
As Al-Qaeda Arabian Province has declined, the organisation has been rocked by financial difficulties and internal divisions. The rise of Saif al-Adel to de-facto leader of al-Qaeda’s central Afghan command has divided AQAP’s leadership class. Prior to the death of Batarfi, al-Awlaki led the pro-al-Adel faction which directly competed with AQAP’s central command. Al-Awlaki’s ascent to leader of AQAP therefore represents a major victory for the pro-al-Adel faction. Over the next 12 months, AQAP must overcome factionalism in order to fight for relevance as Yemen’s warring parties negotiate a peace settlement.
Key Judgement 1. It is likely AQAP new leadership will prioritise healing internal divisions and rebuilding support among local tribes over the next 12 months.
Key Judgement 2. It is unlikely AQAP’s new leadership will significantly increase cooperation with Houthi forces over the next 12 months despite increasing alignment with Iranian interests.
Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely AQAP attacks over the next 12 months will be limited to ambush attacks on STC security forces in Southern Yemen.
