Executive Summary

Mexican cartels continue to expand their Unmanned Aerial Systems capabilities, with overt evidence and proprietary information strongly suggesting specialised drone units will become a standardised feature across different cartels in the near future. The Jalisco Cartel and la Familia Michoacana are spearheading the arms race that features improvised air-delivered munitions and weaponised quadcopters manufactured in China.

Cartels are not only moving from medium models into large platforms to increase their payload capacity, but are also currently acquiring thermal imagery accessories to increase their surveillance capabilities in different conflict hotspots in Mexico. We cannot rule out the possibility that, like in other parts of the world, cartels will soon adopt fibre optic first-person view drones to adjust to the use of hand-held jammers.

Besides the technical sophistication in drone units, at least one non-state actor has been confirmed by the Mexican intelligence Agency to be training and using canine operators for Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD). Mexico’s Security Secretariat additionally disclosed to a local media outlet that the use of dogs for finding Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) has been a trend since last year, especially among a sicario outfit known as the Jalisco Delta Group.

Key Judgements

KJ-1 Specialised drone units are highly likely to become a standard feature of organised crime groups and other non-state actors in Mexico by the end of this year. 

1. As of March, insider imagery obtained and republished by the “Mexican Narcos” media channel displays different members of the Cabelleros Templarios and the Sinaloa Cartel operating both weaponised quadcopters and counter drone systems. [source, source, source]
2. La Familia Michoacana and the Jalisco Cartel accounted for at least 31% of weaponised drone incidents in Mexico during 2021 and 2025, according to a 2026 report by the National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Centre. [source]
3. In that same time period, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data recorded at least 130 unattributable drone attacks in Mexico. [source]
4. Latamirar Group analysts reported to Grey Dynamics that “cartels as a whole are continuing the specialisation of drone units within their ranks,”  following operational techniques and procedures previously associated with the Jalisco Cartel’s Drone Squad. 

KJ-2 Mexican cartels are increasing the payload capacity and surveillance capabilities of weaponised quadcopters, and we cannot rule out the possibility of the introduction of fibre-optics drones after December.

1. Cartel drone operators are currently shifting from medium DJI drone models to larger platforms like the DJI Matrice 300/350 RTK and DJI FlyCart 30 to increase payload capacity for improvised air-delivered munitions, according to Latimirar Group analysts.
2. According to proprietary information from the same contacts, the cartels are increasing the acquisition and adaptation of thermal imagery for aerial surveillance. The United States Customs and Border Protection detected 34,682 drone flights near the border as of 2025. [source]
3. Five different armed groups (La Mayiza, La Chapiza, Cárteles Unidos, Los Metros and Los Escorpiones), were using handheld drone jammers in Mexico as of January, according to a journalistic investigation by Milenio journalist Oscar Balmen. [source]

KJ-3 Mexican cartels likely have developed canine Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) capabilities to counter a growing Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) threat. 

1. In March, Jalisco Cartel operators were documented handling a Belgian Malinois Shepherd, reportedly for EOD assignments somewhere near Jalisco, according to international press and social media reports. [source, source, source]
2. Multiple criminal organisations, including the Jalisco Cartel Delta brigade, have trained and employed canine handlers in EOD operations since 2025, according to Mexico Security Secretariat confidential sources cited by Milenio media outlet. [source]
3. Milenio also reports that Mexico Intelligence Agency has evidence of canine EOD operators attached to the Jalisco Cartel Delta group, especially among sicarios in the inner circle formerly led by Audias Flores Silva. [source]
4. New York Times reporting documents a pattern of explosive incidents across Mexico involving artisanal land mines, suggesting a growing need for IED detection. [source]

Statement on Analysis 

Grey Dynamics analysis is heavily grounded in information provided by cooperative contacts inside the Latimirar Group, a multidisciplinary open-source conglomerate that tracks and analyses cartel activity in South America. Besides the proprietary insights, we cross-checked our data points with different public streams of information emanating from cartel media and local journalists in Mexico. Despite the quality of the sources and contacts, we currently do not have ground assets who could visually identify the platforms or ordnance currently being used in theatre, limiting our ability to conduct further assessments. Additionally, we did not conduct interviews with non-state actors who could shed light on current intent regarding drone warfare in La Familia Michoacana or the Jalisco Cartel. Therefore, we have medium confidence in our analysis, given the number of blind spots.

Intel Cut Off Date: 13 March 2026