Executive Summary

The Arctic was once a region of collaboration, scientific research, and cooperative engagement, even as tensions and conflicts unfolded elsewhere. Since 2022, the Arctic has rapidly emerged as a central arena of geopolitical competition with a rising risk of future flashpoints. It is continuing to evolve, shaped by emerging actors, shifting dynamics, and accelerating environmental change, making 2026 likely to be another important year for the region. Russia, with roughly half of the Arctic coastline along its shores, is deeply embedded in this arena, and its future activities are set to play a major role in shaping the trajectory of the Arctic.

We assess as highly likely Russia’s increase in both the scale and complexity of its hybrid warfare campaigns against other Arctic players, as well as the further intensification of Russian Arctic militarisation in 2026. Furthermore, Moscow is highly likely to further prioritise and tighten its de facto sovereignty over the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Additionally, Russia’s 2026 Arctic foreign policy will likely aim to develop alternative bilateral partnerships outside the West, particularly with China. That said, diverging interests within the Sino-Russian relationship are likely to limit some aspects of cooperation with Beijing.