Changing ice conditions, due to climate change, is reshaping potential Arctic shipping routes. The progressive melting of ice-caps is now considered irreversible. This has made new maritime routes, such as the Northwest Passage (NWP) and the Northern Sea Route (NSR), increasingly viable. Increased Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea has also significantly heightened the risk of using the Suez Canal. Many shipping companies have lost cargo, and increased insurance prices have limited trade through this vital passage. Russia’s position on the globe has given it a strategic advantage for use of these Arctic routes. And, China has benefited via its ‘no limits’ partnership with Russia. With over 80% of world merchandise trade conducted by sea, Western states are also increasingly looking at the future use of Arctic shipping routes.

Key Judgment 1. There is a realistic possibility that Arctic shipping routes will be widely used as early as 2040.

Key Judgment 2. A blurring distinction between commercial and military activities in the Arctic region is highly likely to increase geopolitical tensions between the West, Russia and China.

Key Judgment 3. With Russia’s strategic advantage and dominance over Arctic shipping routes, it is likely that significant use by other states will be slow and difficult to initiate.