During the Summer, the United States pressured its allies, including the Netherlands, to impose stricter export restrictions on ASML’s semiconductor equipment to China. This strategic move, initiated by the U.S. administration, aims to curb China’s access to advanced technology that could enhance its military capabilities. 

In response, last week the Dutch government took back control on the company’s exports still aligning with U.S. policies, resulting in halted shipments of ASML’s high-tech chip-making machines to China. This decision underscores the geopolitical tensions surrounding technology exports and highlights the complex interplay between national security interests and economic considerations.

KJ-1: It is highly likely that U.S. pressure to continue restricting ASML’s trade with China will escalate tensions with the Netherlands.

KJ-2: The Netherlands is likely to adhere to the U.S. trade restrictions despite losing lucrative export revenue.

KJ-3: These trade restrictions are likely to have a detrimental impact on ASML’s stock price.