Executive Summary

After a year under the new interim government, Bangladesh is fragile, but not in collapse. Delhi views Bangladesh as vital to its security, particularly in the “chicken neck” Siliguri Corridor area. New Delhi perceived the ousted Hasina government as pro-India and is now using information operations to undermine the interim government. At the same time, worsening cross-border drug smuggling from both India and Myanmar poses a more immediate threat to internal security than transnational terrorist networks, which are often overstated. The February 2026 elections will be decisive in determining the country’s direction. Credible polls could restore confidence, while a collapse or manipulation would almost certainly trigger widespread instability. 

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