In mid-November, U.S. President Joe Biden and P.R.C. President Xi Jinping held a meeting to discuss issues ranging from Taiwan to Fentanyl. Since then, little has been done to address points of tension. Worse still, the parties have not implemented key outcomes from the meeting, such as regular communication between senior American and Chinese military officials. The relations of the two countries in the next 12 months will shape Indo-Pacific security long after.

Key Judgment 1: It is unlikely that discussions on security issues between China and the U.S. and in the South China Sea will improve in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 2: It is likely that the summit will improve communication and investment between China and American businesses in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 3: It is unlikely that discussions between China and the U.S. will result in tangible improvements in the spread of fentanyl in the United States in the next 12 months.