Executive Summary

This month, U.S. authorities arrested researchers of Chinese citizenship who were smuggling biological pathogens, sparking interest in the potential for biowarfare against agriculture.* Though not a new concept, with the U.S. and other nation states having bioweapons to destroy enemy crops and livestock going back to WWII, more recent concerns have focused on “agroterrorism” that could be perpetrated by non-state actors, as well as hostile nations, and the potential for AI to enable bioweapon production by persons who would otherwise lack the technical know how to do so. We assess that current regulatory measures for AI and biotechnology do not sufficiently prevent potential aggressors from acquiring or developing pathogens for agroterrorism. 

*Context Note: The fungus secreted by the researchers causes “head blight,” a disease affecting wheat, barley, maize, and rice. Investigators stated their belief that the fungus originated with the Chinese government, but have not divulged any supporting evidence. Infection of U.S. crops with the pathogen could cause billions of USD in economic losses. However, we should note that the grains in question include ones for which China relies on U.S. imports to meet its own needs. Authorities charged the researchers with agroterrorism, though the case is still in process and open sources do not clearly reveal their intent for importing the pathogens; both are experts on this particular pathogen. [source, source]

Interpol defines agroterrorism as ‘terrorist attacks aimed against crops and livestock, to disrupt a population’s economy and food supply’. Possible consequences of an agro terrorist attack further include societal instability that often accompanies comestible shortages and risks to public health–the chance of pathogen weapons aimed at livestock infecting humans, similar to the species-jumping seen with avian flu, the plague, and Ebola. [source]

Images Sourced From: Ahmet Koluman, RAND, InterPol