On 19 June, the Canadian government designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist entity”, sparking an outcry from the Iranian government with one government minister also stating that the move was “unwise and unconventional”. Canadian-Iranian academic cooperation has also seen a marked decrease with warnings over Canadian researchers being tied to Iranian drone research programs. Likewise, there have also been warnings by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) that Iran is one of the top countries in regard to committing cyber attacks against Canada.

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that Canadian-Iranian government relations will decrease in the next 12 months due to the listing of the IRGC as a terror organisation.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that Iran will increase espionage attempts aimed at Canada in response to recent Canadian government actions regarding the IRGC. 

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that Canadian-Iranian academic collaboration will decrease in the next 12 months.