Executive Summary 

Ongoing conflict in the central Sahel is worsening insecurity, perpetuating humanitarian crises, and opening the floor to new shifts in the region’s geopolitical and military environment. We do not see any indications of a slowdown in the recent uptick in terrorist violence in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, a trend that will likely continue, or worsen, absent swift and significant foreign intervention. 

The repeated collapse of international counterterrorism efforts and weakened leadership in regional attempts has caused a power vacuum, now exploited by violent, destabilising insurgencies that target governments and civilians, most notably, the Jihadist organisation Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP).

Furthermore, the withdrawal of U.S. government aid and UN peacekeeping forces from the region, namely the exit of Mission Multidimensionnelle Intégrée des Nations Unies pour la Stabilisation au Mali (MINUSMA) on 31 December 2023, and the closure of NGOs by the ruling junta in Burkina Faso, are likely exacerbating the deterioration of the security situation. Particularly, in regards to food security and displacement. 

Finally, the situation in Sahel has opened doors for Russian (and to a lesser extent Chinese) interests, consequently intensifying the Jihadist insurgency and encouraging further violence.