China’s growing presence in Antarctica is causing concern for Australia. On 7 February 2024, China activated its fifth Antarctic facility, Qinling Station. In November 2023, China sent their largest ever expedition to the Ross Sea. China claims Qinling will be used for scientific research and regional data relating to climate change. However, Qinling’s location according to CSIS is in ample position to conduct SIGINT in Australia’s mainland. Additionally, the increasing Chinese presence has sparked alternative concerns over the nation’s growing geopolitical polar aspirations. 

Key Judgement 1: It is a realistic possibility that Qinling Station’s ground satellite facility could be used in SIGINT collection in the Antarctic as well as mainland Australia and New Zealand.

Key Judgement 2: China’s presence in Antarctica is likely to increase in the next 12 months in pursuit of the country’s space ambitions and regional polar strategy.

Key Judgement 3: It is likely that Australia will prioritise Antarctic security over the next 12 months in response to China’s growing presence.