Chinese espionage attempts targeting the United Kingdom and its domestic politics have increased during recent months. The Chinese government has also increased its accusations against the UK government. China has begun accusing Britain of espionage regarding Chinese personnel and government employees. The British government and its representatives have likewise begun an increasing retaliatory campaign and have begun building defenses against Chinese espionage. Accusations that the Chinese government has been directly involved in espionage targeting the UK and its politics have significantly increased. 

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that the Chinese government will increasingly accuse the British government of extracting state secrets from its personnel in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that British politicians and government departments will issue warnings and implement measures to counteract rising Chinese espionage attempts.

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that British domestic politics will experience a significant increase in Chinese espionage attempts in order to destabilise British democracy as evidenced by recent intelligence reports.